Micro-CHP units are one of low carbon heating technologies whose growth has (over the last 5 years) been huge (supported by subsidy) in the deployment of low carbon, distributed energy generation. This is projected to change over the next decade, with independent analysis suggesting a huge growth in the UK’s use of low carbon heating technologies from c. 2015 from around 2% to c. 30% by 2025. This growth will come largely from the selection of low carbon heating technologies in preference to gas boilers, with electric heating staying roughly constant over this period.
Although m-CHP shares the low carbon heat category with other technologies such as solar thermal, air and ground source heat pumps, it has a significant advantage over them because its selection replaces the need for a gas boiler completely, while the others can only reduce the number of hours a gas boiler is required to deliver heat. M-CHP is likely therefore to be the single greatest beneficiary of these projections in overall market growth.
The characteristics of the micro turbine technology has the potential to experience fast market uptake similar to the change that condensing boilers brought to the boiler market during the last decade. The graph below shows the rapid growth of this technology. Over 90% market penetration within 10 years has been achieved. The cost of these boilers were similar to TGB and TwinGen during the first 5 years of deployment. The forecast is based on figures much more conservative than growth of condensing boiler. However the period of rapid market expansion for TGB and TwinGen will be most probably during 2020 to 2030 growing from 10,000 to millions of units, making the micro turbine CHP boilers the industry standard.